They're baaack. With the strong stock market performance of
the first six months of 2013 (+15%) and with the swing to positive inflows to
active equity funds, rather than out, investors have clearly signaled that once
again, their interest lies on the denominator side of the risk/reward equation. Not only are equity investments
appealing, but also, even those with higher risk profiles including IPOs are again
catching investor's fancy.
On many fronts, that's good news. Many are cheering the uptick in IPOs, particularly dramatic
in the med/tech space, but don’t be fooled, a robust IPO market conjures up
both good and bad memories for investors.
Never forget that it's one thing to "get a company
public", but for those who choose that route, the misnamed IPO
"exit" is really just an important milestone on the way to building a
sustainable business with the opportunity to thrive in the years ahead. Unfortunately, as we know too well, the
majority of IPOs, even some of the most highly anticipated, race out of the
gate only to stumble during the first 18 months on the public company track,
often failing to regain their footing fast enough to ever realize a fraction of
their potential.
With that in mind, and based on years of working closely
with institutional investors, in two parts, we offer our guide for newly public
management teams to the top 10 things fledgling public issuers should not do.
Ever.
10 Ways to go from
super steed to dog chow in record time
1. MISS YOUR NUMBERS: Miss the numbers in one of the first 2
quarters after IPO and investors will quickly assume that management is
incompetent. Institutions know
that bankers urge conservatism on the early quarterly forecasts. In fact, the rule is "set
expectations that you can not miss". Therefore, if you miss that inch-high
hurdle, you either didn't listen or don't have a grip on your business, and it's
a very long road to recovery and credibility. Make sure the model you bless with the street is conservative.
They are perfectly happy to have you "beat and raise". If you miss Q1 or Q2 nothing else much
matters from an investor's perspective.
2. Be naive about the ways of Wall Street; If you beat the analyst’s model but
miss their real expectations, and worse, fail to understand that you missed you
will again have credibility issues. Marin Software is one (of many) poster children for this problem.
The company went public with what
appeared to be extremely conservative research analyst forecasts. Unfortunately, its first quarter results
narrowly beat those forecasts and worse, showed growth decelerating more
rapidly than the street expected. Oops. Management then compounded the error by
meeting with top investors, failing to acknowledge the problem, saying they could
not understand the selloff as after all, “We beat the analyst’s models!” Double
oops.
Make no mistake, investors will pummel your stock for any
miss, but if management owns up to a rookie mistake, the trip back to
credibility will likely be much faster.
How to avoid this pothole? Management should clearly
communicate the core metrics by which analysts should measure the business
performance and from the start, should maintain a dialog with both the buy and
sell side to really understand (not to comment on or change, just to
understand) street expectations. In the event of an unexpected deviation from plan, be ready
to fully explain the delta and how you hope to avoid a similar surprise in the
future. Most buyside investors
will tell you "there's no such thing as a one quarter problem". The more rapidly management owns up to
the realistic magnitude of the hiccup, the quicker investors will rebuild
trust.
3. Bash your direct competitors: In big growth markets there should be
plenty of room for multiple players. Bashing competitors sends a message that
the market may not be as big or fast growing as investors hoped. Furthermore, a lower competitor
valuation is bound to hit your stock as well, so wish them the best. Explain to investors factually how you
are different, preferably in terms of product performance, architecture, and
technology. Explain why you win
when you compete, but do not make your success contingent on beating the other
guy. And one more thing,
suing your competitor while they are on their roadshow, particularly about some
issue that has been in the markets for months, makes your team look scared,
wasteful and just a little pathetic.
It also generally makes the buy side laugh as they have seen that movie
before. Tread lightly on your
competitors.
4. Casually dismiss the behemoths: Pooh-poohing the ability of those big,
well-funded technology companies to respond nimbly and competitively, is never
a good story. At least from our
observations, it also generally isn't a good business practice, but that's a
different column. Investors
like management teams that are wary, respectful and paranoid. Acknowledge investors' fears that
competitors are big and well-funded and cannot be ignored. Then tell the buyside what you are doing
to maintain your lead, how you have built your financial model to leave room to
respond if need be and how paranoia drives you.
5. Sell too fast: Sorry folks, active management should
not sell stock before reporting two clean quarters. While this is always true, it is even more distressing to
the buyside when individuals who sold in or just before the IPO, hit the
cashout button again at first opportunity. Investors identify management selling in an early lock-up release
as a major red flag that can trigger institutional selling or give investors
pause about building a bigger position or making a long term commitment. Public investors prefer management 10b-5
plans as a means of monetization. That
said, sometimes individual management members have been patient or are concerns
about diversification. If an
individual hasn't sold recently he or she can sell early (again much better if
after two strong and clean quarters) without freaking out investors. The key is
to sell 10% or less of vested holdings in the early going.
There you have it; part 1 of our thoughts on errors a newly
public company should never make, based on conversations with the buyside. But wait, there's more... part 2 coming
soon.
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